Every year, every state projects upcoming state tax revenues. It matters a lot. These estimates are used by legislators, technocrats, and the governor to determine spending for schools, health care, and agency or program in government. Sometimes, when states are on a biannual budget, spending must determine spending for two years. Imagine trying to estimate […]
fiscal policy
Iowa Projected Revenues Up Again
As expected, the Iowa Revenue Estimating Conference are estimating higher state tax revenues for the current and next year than previously thought. Last year, I predicted these revenue estimates would be underestimated. These models tend not to predict changes in the economy, so they tend to overestimate revenues during recessions and underestimate revenues during economic […]
REC Estimates for Fiscal Year 2011
The Revenue Estimating Conference published their December predictions for fiscal year 2011 (July 2009 – June 2010). We know the margin of error for REC net revenue predictions for the following year 3.9%–higher than the ideal margin of error. REC revised, downward, their prediction to $5.403 billion in net revenues. Given their historical accuracy it […]
Accuracy of Iowa’s Revenue Estimating Conference
A lot of people have been paying attention to the Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) the last two years. By law, REC meets three times a year–March, October, and December–to forecast tax revenues for the next fiscal year (between July and June). The legislature and governor use the estimates to determine expenditures…