Increasing Inaccuracy of State Revenue Estimates

Every year, every state projects upcoming state tax revenues. It matters a lot. These estimates are used by legislators, technocrats, and the governor to determine spending for schools, health care, and agency or program in government. Sometimes, when states are on a biannual budget, spending must determine spending for two years. Imagine trying to estimate […]

Iowa Projected Revenues Up Again

As expected, the Iowa Revenue Estimating Conference are estimating higher state tax revenues for the current and next year than previously thought. Last year, I predicted these revenue estimates would be underestimated. These models tend not to predict changes in the economy, so they tend to overestimate revenues during recessions and underestimate revenues during economic […]

y-axis at Zero

If your graphing for my class, or just in general, start your axis at zero. It seems trivial, but can have a large impact on the graph. This was apparent in a recent presentation by the Iowa Legislative Services Agency on budget revenues for the current year. Below is a graph (blue line) showing state […]